Hi,

Welcome to the 7th edition of the Mulder Strategies newsletter. Every month I will highlight one specific topic which I post in my second newsletter. I also provide market updates where necessary.

In this issue I will talk about the current market state, geopolitics with Iran and end the story with another opportunity which I believe investors could benefit from in the near future.

Occasionally I come across something in the markets that stands out enough for me to highlight. This week I noticed a development that could be an early warning sign for the bullish trend. As you know, my base case remains constructive into the middle of the year, with the possibility of further gains extending cautiously into the period around the midterms. After that, I continue to expect a more meaningful downturn. What caught my attention this week is something that could represent the early stages of consolidation, or potentially the beginning of a topping process. I’ll explain what I’m seeing and why it matters in more detail below.

Earnings season is just around the corner and so far the companies that have reported are beating estimates very strongly. The AI segment is doing very well and companies like TSM, Samsung and ASML are reporting healthy numbers:

Despite the strong numbers, the stock traded lower. This is what we refer to as a “news failure event” when positive news fails to push prices higher. It often signals that buyers are becoming exhausted or that the trend is entering a consolidation phase.This type of reaction is worth watching because it can indicate that underlying market dynamics are shifting in the short term. Price peaks, including cyclical tops, tend to form on good news rather than bad news. When strong results no longer generate upside, it can be an early sign that momentum is fading.

We are seeing news failure events in several leading AI-related stocks. This type of reaction where strong results fail to push prices higher, can sometimes signal that the market is entering a consolidation phase or that a cyclical peak is forming in that segment. It is still too early to draw any firm conclusions, but these kinds of signals have historically appeared around market tops, which is why I continue to monitor them closely. Broader market correlations remain important, but for now I remain constructively positioned.

In mid-June 2026 the United States and Iran reached a Memorandum of Understanding aimed at stopping the fighting. The deal sought to restore a ceasefire, gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping and start a 60-day period for wider negotiations.

The agreement was vague on the most important issues, especially how the strait would be controlled. Iran wanted approval over shipping routes and a dominant role in the waterway. The United States and its partners wanted unrestricted access, including southern routes near Oman that would limit Iranian influence. Tensions returned quickly.

Between June 25 and 28 Iran struck commercial ships near the strait. The Singapore-flagged tanker ‘‘Ever Lovely’’ was hit by a projectile or drone, and the Panama-flagged Kiku was attacked while carrying roughly two million barrels of crude. Iran warned that vessels must coordinate with it or face consequences.

The United States responded with strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites, coastal radar, and air defenses.

Iran fired back at U.S.-linked facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. A short period of relative calm followed, but the core disagreement over the strait was never settled.

In early July Iran resumed attacks on commercial shipping, including strikes on a Qatari LNG tanker and a Saudi oil tanker.

The United States saw this as a clear breach of the June agreement. On July 7 it launched large-scale strikes against more than 80 Iranian targets and later expanded the campaign. It also reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and canceled previous oil export waivers.

Iran responded by attacking U.S. facilities in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, describing the conflict as existential. The fighting has since settled into a pattern of nightly U.S. strikes aimed at Iranian capabilities near the strait and Iranian retaliatory attacks on regional targets.

The agreement collapsed because it left the hardest questions unresolved. Iran was determined to keep strategic leverage over the strait. The United States was determined to protect free navigation. With deep mutual distrust and hardliners active on both sides, violations were almost inevitable once the initial diplomatic momentum faded. As of mid-July 2026 shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains sharply reduced. The risk of further escalation is still present but as I said in prior newsletter concerning this topic, I do believe that the bulk of the risks are already behind us. Current escalations put pressure on markets in the short term and it could spark more concerns in the energy sector as we have seen since this war started. While my overall opinion is that this is likely going to be short lived once more, I will continue to monitor the situation in every newsletter as this remains one of the most active themes for investors. As of right now I am not too concerned about another energy crisis as I believe markets are likely discounting the escalation and there will likely be another cease-fire once the US has finished bombing infrastructure.

While we need to monitor the ongoing conflict with Iran, I do believe that the bulk of the risks are behind us in the short term and that the market won’t discount it as they did when the war first ignited. I believe it is only a minor headwind until proven otherwise and soon de-escalation will be back on the tables after this wave of strikes by the US is over.

I am not repositioning as of now based on this new turmoil but am actively watching oil prices.

Proprietary ETF only portfolio (passive)

I launched this Passive Model Portfolio on January 1st, 2026. It is up over 7.2% as of July 2026.

I will not add any new capital to it. Instead, I’m running it as a transparent, real-world example of a well-balanced portfolio across sectors and regions. Starting capital: €10,000.

I will report any changes here so you can track performance over time. Because this is a passive portfolio, I plan to keep adjustments to a minimum and only make significant changes when I believe the secular (long-term) cycle is shifting.

Changes made since last issue:

None

Adyen operates one of the most sophisticated payments platforms in the world. It provides a single, unified system that lets large companies process payments across online stores, physical locations, and mobile channels. Unlike many competitors that stitched together different systems through acquisitions, Adyen built everything in-house on one platform and one codebase. This creates real switching costs: once a large merchant integrates Adyen across multiple departments and countries, replacing it becomes a complex, expensive, and risky project.

The company has demonstrated this strength in practice. It recently helped Starbucks roll out its platform across 943 stores in just seven weeks. More importantly, Adyen is expanding beyond simple payment processing into areas like issuing cards and managing money flows for platforms. This embedded finance business grew eightfold in 2025, deepening customer relationships and making the platform even stickier.

Strong Financial Profile

Adyen stands out for its profitability and cash generation. In 2025, it achieved an EBITDA margin of 53% while converting 86% of its profits into free cash flow. Capital expenditure remains very low at around 5% of revenue, which is typical of high-quality software-like businesses. The balance sheet is exceptionally clean, with almost no debt. These characteristics allow Adyen to compound capital efficiently without needing to raise money or take on significant financial risk. Management has also shown discipline by continuing to invest in long-term growth (particularly in the United States) even when the stock price was under pressure.

Growth Is Maturing

Like most successful companies that reach scale, Adyen’s growth rate has slowed. Net revenue grew 18% in 2025 (21% in constant currency), down from higher rates in previous years. This is largely a natural result of operating from a much larger revenue base. However, the company also faced some macro headwinds. Weaker global trade flows and tariff-related uncertainty reduced payment volumes from certain customers. This revealed that Adyen’s growth is more sensitive to economic conditions than many investors previously assumed. Management guided for 20–22% constant-currency growth in 2026, which remains solid but reflects a more mature growth profile.

The AI Question

A major debate in the market right now is how agentic AI will affect companies like Adyen. Some fear that AI agents could eventually orchestrate payments across different systems without needing a single proprietary platform, potentially reducing Adyen’s competitive advantage. Adyen is responding by building tools that position it as the governance layer for both human and AI-driven transactions. While this is a logical strategy, it remains early days. The outcome will likely depend on whether enterprises prefer a unified platform or a more open, multi-vendor approach. This uncertainty is one reason the stock has been volatile.

Valuation Has Become More Reasonable

I added a Fastgraph chart above which comes straight from Fastgraphs. It clearly showcases the historic traded PE ratio in blue and the cashflows it is generating. Whenever price goes under historic PE and also dives under its cashflows into the dark green area, I argue the stock itself is undervalued. As you can see this is also clearly the case for Adyen.

After reporting results in February 2026, Adyen shares fell roughly 20% on concerns about slower growth and cautious guidance. The stock now trades at significantly lower multiples than it did at previous peaks — around 8x sales and roughly 20x earnings depending on the exact measure used. This compression has improved the risk-reward profile. Even in more pessimistic scenarios, many analysts see fair value at or above current levels. That said, Adyen does not pay a dividend, so all returns depend on share price appreciation. The stock can also move sharply in both directions because of its high sensitivity to market sentiment.

Risks to Consider

The main risks are straightforward. Growth could slow further if the global economy weakens or trade volumes decline. Competition from companies like Stripe, Block, and Toast remains intense and is unlikely to disappear. Over a longer period, wallet providers such as Apple Pay and Google Pay could capture more of the customer relationship, potentially reducing the importance of the underlying payment processor.Adyen’s large-customer concentration can also create noise in reported numbers. For example, the runoff of volume from one major customer distorted processed volume figures in 2025 and contributed to the sharp share price reaction.

It is my opinion that we are in a part of the cycle where we should consider adding value and fundamentally strong companies to our portfolio in order to balance out potential high growth stocks that could also bring high volatility with them. This because valuations accros US stocks are elevated and it is my expectation that we could see another bear market in equities before the end of 2026 as very likely scenario. Because of this reason I am already starting to build an active watchlist of fundamental strong candidates that already are undervalued but that could become excellent buys once this move does come to fruition.

Adyen remains a fundamentally strong business with a durable competitive position and excellent cash-flow characteristics. The recent pullback has made the valuation more reasonable than it has been in years. However, the company is no longer the high-growth story it once was. It is transitioning into a high-quality compounder that should deliver solid, if not spectacular, returns over time, provided it continues to execute and the macro environment does not deteriorate sharply. I have added this stock to my watchlist and will look to scale into a position.