Hi,

Welcome to the 2nd edition of the Mulder Strategies newsletter. Every month I will highlight one specific macro topic that I believe is both important and actionable for investors in the current market environment. For this edition, I’d like to share something more personal: my Passive ETF Portfolio, which I actually use for long-term investing for myself and my family.

I want to thank you for being here and subscribing as I do not take it for granted!

In our last newsletter we looked at two plausible scenarios for the S&P 500. It looks as if the V-shaped recovery is the one that has played out and it was also the best resolution we could have hoped for under the circumstances.

As I stated before, I remain constructively bullish and expected new all-time highs. It now appears we are already seeing that move unfold in real time. 

Before I continue with a fresh update on the geopolitical situation with Iran, I want to take a moment to revisit the S&P 500 and my broader secular outlook. This longer-term lens is what really matters for investors, especially when short-term noise and headlines try to dominate the conversation. The recent recovery reinforces the same message I have been sharing: we are still firmly inside secular movements.

Let’s talk about the current market situation and how it connects to the developments around Iran. This gives us a clear, balanced view of where I see the market heading in the months ahead. The S&P 500 has pulled back roughly 9% heading into the end of March. This is no unusual event. Roughly every single year the stock market experiences at least one decline of about 10%. 

Investors should acknowledge that the market’s upside potential always comes with downside risk. Even moves of up to 15% are very common and, in a secular bull cycle, should be built into your portfolio planning from the start.

These dips often create excellent buying opportunities, even when the headlines and sentiment feel overwhelmingly negative. The key is to recognize them for what they are: normal pauses in a longer-term upward trend.

If we scroll all the way back to 2008 and the Great Financial Crisis and look at every correction since then, this recent 9% move is actually right at the median. On average, corrections have been around -8% and they have lasted about 26 days. 

Our latest pullback fits the historical pattern exactly and should be treated as such, not as the start of something more ominous. 

Now let’s zoom out and overlay this short-term noise with the longer-term equity bull cycle. When I view the S&P 500 on a secular basis, the picture remains constructive. The CTM (indicator in image below) is still sitting in a strong area, which aligns with my expectation that this secular bull cycle is likely to extend well into the 2030 period. Even the sharp retracements we saw during the Corona crash did not trigger a secular bear-market signal,  unlike what happened in 2000 and 2008, when both episodes clearly marked the start of extended secular bear markets.

The recent volatility has been amplified by geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The conflict with Iran added another layer of uncertainty, pushing oil prices higher and reminding us how quickly external shocks can create short-term pressure. Yet the broader context has not changed the underlying secular trend. These events tend to produce exactly the kind of temporary dips we have come to expect in any multi-year bull cycle. The takeaway for investors is straightforward. Short-term dips happen often, sometimes driven by geopolitics, sometimes by normal market mechanics. They are part of the journey. The real skill is zooming out to the bigger picture and remembering where we actually stand: still inside a secular bull market that has plenty of room to run.

In practical terms, this means treating the current environment as a normal correction rather than a reason to step away from equities. For those following the diversified ETF-only portfolio I outlined in the ‘‘topic of this month’’ section of this newsletter issue, these periods are opportunities to stay the course, or even add to positions on weakness!

Let’s now turn to the current situation with Iran. President Trump is facing limited support within his own party (chart 1 below).

Any prolonged military engagement would require congressional approval, which looks unlikely given the clear opposition from key Republicans. I believe the public messaging is designed to create leverage and pressure, but behind the scenes the administration is likely working toward a face-saving deal that allows an exit, at least for the time being. 

With midterm elections on the horizon (November 2026), the political cost of an extended conflict would be high. I therefore expect a resolution that holds through the November vote.

After the midterms, the picture could shift. There is a realistic chance the issue reignites, potentially turning into a multi-year standoff similar to what we have seen with Russia and Ukraine. That longer-term risk remains on the table and is something we will continue to monitor closely. In the short term, however, the market appears to have found its bottom. We could still see volatility that pulls the S&P 500 back toward the gap levels around 6600, but I do not see a second leg down to 6100 as the base-case scenario is playing out right now.

Geopolitical headlines will keep things choppy, that is simply the nature of how markets react to this kind of news flow. Expect swings, but within the context of the V-shaped recovery we have already witnessed as the most likely outcome.

Proprietary ETF only portfolio (passive)

I launched this Passive Model Portfolio on January 1st, 2026. It is up over 7% as of April 2026.

I will not add any new capital to it. Instead, I’m running it as a transparent, real-world example of a well-balanced portfolio across sectors and regions.Starting capital: €10,000.I will report any changes here so you can track performance over time. Because this is a passive portfolio, I plan to keep adjustments to a minimum and only make significant changes when I believe the secular (long-term) cycle is shifting.

Changes made since last issue:

None

A secular bull cycle is a multi-year, sometimes decade-long, period in which the overall trend of markets is upward, even though normal corrections, sector rotations, and regional divergences happen along the way. During such cycles, the best long-term strategy is broad diversification that captures the growth while protecting against the inevitable drawdowns that come with any bull market.

In the image below I show you the SPX supercycle that shows bull cycles in green and bear cycles in red focusing on the past 100 years. You notice phases of expansion and stagnation and the current cycle from 2013 and ongoing, is a clear bullish cycle.

This portfolio is built to do exactly that: participate in the upside of the ongoing secular bull cycle while reducing the risk of being overly exposed to any single country, sector, or asset class. It is truly passive. I keep changes to a minimum and only rebalance if there is a major secular shift.

The portfolio gives you balanced exposure across geographies, asset classes, and structural themes. It is designed to deliver steady participation in the bull cycle without the concentration risk that comes from chasing the hottest names or regions at any given moment. Right now, with U.S. valuations historically high, this balanced approach feels especially prudent.

This holding provides balanced exposure to the U.S. equity market without the extreme concentration in the largest technology stocks. Equal-weighting reduces the risk of overpaying for the most expensive names at a time when U.S. valuations are stretched. It still captures the strength of American companies, but in a more even-handed way that has historically performed well across different phases of the cycle.

Here we add exposure to Europe, Japan, Australia, and other developed economies outside the United States. These markets often behave differently from U.S. stocks. They can outperform when the dollar weakens or when U.S. growth slows. This slice acts as a natural hedge against U.S.-specific risks and gives the portfolio a more global flavor.

Emerging markets bring exposure to faster-growing economies in Asia, Latin America, and elsewhere. They tend to deliver stronger returns in the later stages of a secular bull cycle and benefit from global trade recovery and commodity strength. This allocation adds growth potential that pure developed-market portfolios often miss. Emerging markets have been underperforming for the last 15 years and are primed for a come back.

Physical gold and silver serve as classic inflation hedges and safe-haven assets during periods of geopolitical tension, currency devaluation, or market stress. The gold miners (G2X) provide leveraged upside when the gold price rises. These holdings tend to perform well precisely when traditional equities struggle, adding stability and non-correlation to the overall mix.

This is a targeted thematic allocation tied to the long-term energy transition. Nuclear power is gaining renewed importance as a clean, reliable baseload source of energy. Uranium itself has strong supply/demand dynamics and tends to do well in periods of rising energy demand and geopolitical supply risks. The position adds growth potential linked to real-world structural changes rather than pure speculation.

I keep this as a small, deliberate allocation for asymmetric upside. Bitcoin has historically delivered very high returns during risk-on periods and acts as a non-correlated asset. Even a modest position can meaningfully boost overall portfolio returns when it performs strongly, while the risk remains limited by the small weighting.

The real power of the portfolio comes from the way the pieces complement each other and reduce overall risk. Geographic diversification in the U.S. + international developed + emerging markets, ensures we are not overly dependent on any single economy. 

With U.S. equities relatively expensive right now, the meaningful exposure to international and emerging markets provides a natural hedge if the U.S. market corrects or underperforms for a while.

Equities paired with commodities create a more balanced risk profile. When equities weaken because of slowing growth or higher interest rates, commodities such as gold and silver often perform well as safe-haven assets or inflation hedges. This helps smooth out the portfolio’s volatility over time. 

Traditional equities combined with targeted thematic growth (nuclear and Bitcoin) add both stability and upside potential. The broad equity holdings provide the steady long-term growth that defines a secular bull cycle, while nuclear and Bitcoin give exposure to powerful structural trends in energy and digital assets that can deliver outsized returns in the right environment. 

Low correlation between the segments is the key. Gold and Bitcoin, for example, often move differently from stocks. When one part of the portfolio is under pressure, another part can help offset the decline. Overall, this combination is designed to capture the upside of the ongoing secular bull cycle while cushioning against the normal corrections, sector rotations, and regional divergences that occur along the way. 

It is easy to implement, truly passive, and requires very little ongoing maintenance. I will continue to report any changes here so you can follow along. Because this is a passive portfolio, expect only occasional updates unless a specific position is very overvalued and I need to rebalance or we see a secular trend shift in markets.